TN: Why outside support to ADMK govt will suit BJP better

Ahead of 2026 TN polls, BJP-AIADMK renew alliance

The BJP Central Party leadership and ADMK have decided to join hands as the NDA for the 2026 TN Assembly elections and possibly beyond. In an effort to ease tensions, the BJP has replaced the State President.

BJP has travelled a long distance from the discussions we have had on its options.[1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6], [7], [8], [9].

The C-Voter Sentiment Tracker aired by ‘India Today’ signals a change in TN’s voter mood, in favour of this alliance. It’s indirect, yes, but worth watching.

Two caveats:

1. It didn’t ask who voters will choose; only who, they think, has the upper hand. So, it’s a sentiment gauge, not voter preference.
2. It’s too early. Sentiments can swing either way before 2026.

Still, the ground appears to be shifting.

Now, add EPS’s declaration:

“ADMK will not have BJP ministers in its government.”

This could be bravado, bargaining start, or just meant for ADMK cadres.

Many in the BJP appear disappointed.

But objectively, it’s an opportunity for the BJP. Let’s see why.

No coalition, no compromise

BJP gains nothing by joining an ADMK-led government.

Instead, it risks:

• Potential friction on public policy issues with ADMK
• Loss of public credibility as a clean alternative
• Becoming answerable for the follies of ADMK, current and past
• Becoming a punching bag if things go wrong
• Making both the BJP and ADMK vulnerable, leading to the DMK comeback
• Could give a false sense of progress initially
• Could create a culture of ADMK-dependency for the BJP’s state leaders
• Fatal for a party trying to be an alternative to Dravidian politics

Moral authority comes from staying out.

BJP must preserve its strategic and moral independence.

By not joining the government, the BJP can:

• Keep DMK, the scourge of TN, out of power
• Question both DMK and ADMK on failures
• Maintain clean hands in the eyes of the voter
• Offer a credible alternative when the time comes
• Use the seat sharing to strengthen the organisation[2]

As I’d proposed in my article, “A Sure Way to Defeat DMK in 2026”:[3]

• BJP should ideally seek seat adjustments, not a formal alliance
• That way, ADMK cadres would find it easier to back the BJP more wholeheartedly
• And BJP voters would reciprocate it too

What results does the BJP expect from TN?

Minimum: Get the highly corrupt, anti-national, anti-social, anti-Hindu DMK out of power.

Desirable: Get some seats in Parliament for itself and NDA allies to support reforms.

• Which will correspondingly reduce the opponents (esp., INDI alliance) of reforms

Maximum: Get the majority of seats for the BJP in Parliament and the Assembly, as part of the NDA.

Realistically, given the alliance with ADMK stitched, the BJP should expect to achieve the following:

• Minimum (DMK out) in 2026 Assembly elections
• Desirable (a fair number of Parliament seats for NDA) in 2029 LS elections
• Maximum any time (come to power leading NDA coalition) from 2031 or beyond

Possible immediate near-term option: Out DMK, seat adjustments with ADMK

As I’d observed in my article: “TN – A Gift of History & Geography Squandered by Politics”[1].

• Despite great ports, rivers, and heritage, TN’s infrastructure is underleveraged
• Caste politics has replaced economic thinking
• The obsession with identity has blocked investment and innovation
• The Dravidian model has delivered slogans, not real decentralization

For decades, the state has been caught in the binaries of DMK and ADMK.

• Both of them claim to represent Tamil pride.
• But what have they actually delivered?
• Except during MGR’s direct rule?

The BJP alone can ask these questions.

• But only if it stays independent and untainted by sharing power with ADMK.

Making such an arrangement work within a unified NDA is tricky.

But luckily, the BJP and ADMK have always maintained a distance within the NDA.

Build, don’t beg

• Ministerial berths in TN are a distraction
• BJP must focus on building capacity, not cutting deals

As I’d suggested in my article, “A Possible Strategy for BJP in TN 2026 Elections”.[2]

Use the future elections to:

• Strengthen the party in key constituencies
• Showcase local governance reforms

Clarify unambiguously in the Parliament that:

• Both English and Hindi will remain link languages forever.
• Delimitation will not reduce TN’s voice numerically/ proportionately in parliament, compared to present the present.

These are not appeasements.

They’re rational national commitments.

Annamalai should be considered the BJP’s long-term bet.

• He’s not a transactional leader
• He’s a transformational one
• His appeal cuts across castes
• He speaks from his heart
• He is the best challenger to both Dravidian parties on
  • Corruption
  • Governance
  • Hollow rhetoric

Let him stay above coalition compulsions.

Let him mobilize youth and first-time voters.

Let him speak for a new TN.

Conclusion

To evict DMK:

• Seat sharing with ADMK? Yes.
• Coalition government? No.

Use the moral space to expose the hollowness of the Dravidian narrative.

Show how identity politics has held TN back.

Offer a real alternative built on governance, growth, and dignity.

BJP has nothing to gain and everything to lose by sharing power:

• Reserve the option to challenge even ADMK
• Play the long game in Tamil Nadu.

After having found a way to dislodge DMK, evil-personified.

After having found a way to get sets in LS, for itself, and a flexible ADMK.

BJP must play the long game in TN.

Because when the people of TN look for a true alternative, the BJP should be ready.

Not a compromise. Not a diluted BJP.

But a clean, clear, and credible BJP.

Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

References: –

[1] TN: A gift of history & geography, squandered by politics – Apr 4, 2025, PGurus.com

[2] A possible strategy for BJP in TN 2026 elections – Mar 18, 2025, PGurus.com

[3] A sure way to defeat DMK in 2026? – Jan 15, 2025, PGurus.com

[4] BJP in TN can promise to take over self-financing colleges – Nov 08, 2024, PGurus.com

[5] How BJP can get 33%+ vote share in TN – Apr 01, 2024, PGurus.com

[6] How TN BJP can come to No. 1 or No. 2 in 2024 LS polls – Jan 11, 2024, PGurus.com

[7] Why BJP’s best time in Tamil Nadu is now – Oct 10, 2023, PGurus.com

[8] Can BJP win TN 2024 elections, if it fights alone? – Mar 31, 2023, PGurus.com

[9] Will Annamalai defeat DMK in the 2024 LS elections? – Jan 17, 2023, PGurus.com

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