Xi Jinping likely to decline Donald Trump’s inauguration invitation, experts say

Xi Jinping may skip Trump’s oath-taking due to risks

Experts suggest that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is unlikely to accept President-elect Donald Trump‘s invitation to attend his inauguration on January 20, as the gesture may be seen as too risky and have little impact on the already competitive US-China relations.

Trump’s incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed that the invitation had been extended, but the Chinese Embassy in Washington remained silent on the matter. Experts believe Xi will avoid attending the ceremony, as there is no protocol or precedent for a Chinese leader to be present at a US president’s swearing-in.

Danny Russel, former assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific affairs, now vice president for international security at the Asia Society Policy Institute, expressed doubts about Xi attending the event. He said, “Can you imagine Xi Jinping sitting outdoors in Washington, DC, in January, surrounded by hawkish members of Congress, while Trump delivers his inaugural address?” Russel added that Xi would not reduce himself to being a mere guest at a US president’s event.

Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, echoed similar concerns, pointing out that Beijing values its leader’s dignity and security when traveling abroad. She said, “I don’t think the Chinese will take the risk,” citing past diplomatic issues such as Taiwan’s involvement in President Joe Biden’s 2021 inauguration. Beijing considers Taiwan part of China and has warned the US about crossing this “red line.”

The possibility of Trump imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods upon taking office, as he has threatened, also makes Xi’s attendance politically unfeasible. If tariffs are implemented, Xi would risk being seen as weak and foolish for attending the event, which is unacceptable to Beijing, according to Sun.

Instead, Xi is more likely to engage with Trump directly in a future meeting, as the former president prefers face-to-face interactions with key foreign leaders. Russel notes that Beijing may feel it can secure better terms by negotiating directly with Trump, particularly given his hawkish stance toward China.

Trump’s anticipated return to the White House is expected to heighten the US-China rivalry. His Cabinet picks, including China critics like Sen. Marco Rubio for Secretary of State and Rep. Mike Waltz for national security adviser, indicate a more confrontational approach. Beijing has adopted a “wait-and-see” strategy, preparing to retaliate should the U.S. impose tariffs or take other aggressive actions.

While Trump has employed both conciliatory and combative tactics toward China, as seen during his 2017 visit to the country followed by the trade war in 2018, Sun warns that this approach creates contradictions for China, leading them to adopt a cautious stance rather than engage too quickly with Trump.

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