India surpasses Pakistan in nuclear warheads, SIPRI Yearbook 2025 reveals; China holds triple India’s arsenal

SIPRI report highlights nuclear modernization and strategic shifts in Asia

According to the latest Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) Yearbook 2025, India now holds more nuclear warheads than Pakistan, reflecting a steady expansion in its strategic capabilities. As of January 2025, India possesses an estimated 180 nuclear warheads, compared to Pakistan’s 170. China, meanwhile, leads the region with 600 warheads, 24 of which are deployed on operational missiles or stationed at military bases.

The report notes that India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal in 2024 while advancing its delivery systems. New developments include canisterised missiles—transportable systems potentially capable of carrying multiple warheads and remaining mated to them even during peacetime.

India’s strategic posture and modernization efforts

SIPRI analysts observed that India’s evolving capabilities signal a possible shift in nuclear posture. Traditionally, India has stored its warheads separately from launch systems. However, the integration of canisterized systems and the initiation of sea-based deterrence patrols may point to a trend toward mating warheads with launch platforms in peacetime.

India’s nuclear triad—comprising air, land, and sea-based delivery systems—is described as “maturing,” with greater emphasis now being placed on developing longer-range weapons capable of targeting key strategic sites across China.

While Pakistan remains the central focus of India’s deterrent strategy, SIPRI’s findings suggest a gradual strategic pivot toward addressing potential threats from China.

Pakistan’s capabilities and future trends

Pakistan, too, continues to develop new nuclear-capable delivery systems and expand its stockpile of fissile materials. The report suggests its arsenal may grow further in the next decade, driven by regional competition and technological advancements.

China’s significant lead and regional implications

China maintains a substantially larger stockpile and is the only country in the region with deployed nuclear warheads. SIPRI confirmed China’s deployment of two missile types that carry multiple warheads and noted that India, Pakistan, and North Korea are all pursuing this capability.

SIPRI highlighted that Russia and the United States continue to hold the largest nuclear stockpiles, with 5,459 and 5,177 warheads, respectively (including retired warheads). Other nations modernizing their nuclear forces include France, the UK, North Korea, and Israel.

Operation Sindoor mentioned in the context of nuclear risk

The report made a brief reference to India’s recent Operation Sindoor, cautioning that military strikes on nuclear-related infrastructure—especially amid disinformation campaigns—could raise the risk of a conventional conflict escalating into a nuclear crisis.

India among top global arms importers

The yearbook also revealed that India was the second-largest arms importer globally between 2020 and 2024, following Ukraine. Other major recipients included Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. Together, these five nations accounted for 35% of total global arms imports during that period.

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