Why BJP must be silently happy

BJP unfazed by 2024 Lok Sabha setbacks

BJP‘s rise to power since 2014 has been nothing short of historic. Having won three consecutive elections and established dominance at both the national and state levels, the party has positioned itself as the primary force in Indian politics.

However, BJP’s reduced number of seats in the Lok Sabha and the loss of some states to the opposition have bolstered the morale of opposition parties while somewhat denting that of BJP cadres.

Many analysts believe that the opposition parties are at a striking distance from capturing power at the Centre in 2029 and in many states before that.

Yet, BJP’s top leadership may not be overly concerned about the moderate setbacks it has faced in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and possible setbacks in some states. In fact, they might recognize that these developments could benefit the party in the long run.

Let me outline my hypothesis, which might seem counter-intuitive, for reasons BJP can’t discuss openly.

Reality of power balance

In a democracy as large and diverse as India, BJP likely understands that it’s not possible for any party – no matter how popular, including Modi’s BJP – to hold absolute power for long at both the center and in most states. If such dominance happens, it could lead to unintended consequences.

A political environment where opposition forces are pushed to the margins can create frustration, leading to desperate actions. This might even prompt opposition parties to seek increasing levels of external support, already suspected to be happening to some extent, potentially destabilizing the nation.

Shared power, with a substantial tilt toward BJP, could help maintain a competitive, pluralistic political environment that fosters healthy democratic processes. This dynamic serves not only democracy but also BJP’s interests.

Although BJP would be happy with absolute power, its top leadership likely concedes that a vocal opposition keeps the party alert and adaptable to changing public sentiment. This could help the BJP stay in power at the center for a long time by being responsive to the needs of the electorate and avoiding the complacency that comes with overwhelming power.

Managing expectations

With absolute power comes heightened expectations. Voters would expect rapid, widespread change when the BJP holds full control at both national and state levels. However, it’s challenging to meet such unrealistic expectations in a diverse, developing country like India, with varying languages, cultures, socio-political complexities, and limited resources.

Failure to meet these sky-high expectations could lead to voter disenchantment, followed by sharp backlash in the next election cycle.

By not holding absolute power for too long, the BJP can focus on pragmatic, gradual progress, and managing expectations better. This can prevent a dramatic fall from favor, as the party remains strong enough to influence public policy without the burden of overwhelming expectations.

The Index of Opposition Unity (IOU)

The IOU, a concept discussed in Indian politics a decade or two ago, is highest when the BJP is perceived as likely to knock out the opposition decisively, as happened in previous Lok Sabha elections. However, IOU diminishes when the BJP is seen as fighting a more even battle, as in Haryana and currently in Maharashtra, where infighting among opposition parties is growing. Thus, BJP’s chances may actually be strongest when the perception is the opposite.

The natural course of political dynamics

This is not to suggest that the BJP deliberately concedes seats or power – quite the contrary. The political dynamics in a country as diverse as India naturally lead to fluctuating fortunes, given the varied states with different languages, castes, religions, and power centers. BJP’s top leadership is likely aware of this.

Rather than worrying about the loss of 60+ seats in the Lok Sabha or power in a few states, the BJP views these setbacks as part of the natural ebb and flow of democracy.

As long as the party retains power at the center and in several states, with or without an absolute majority, and continues to do its best in governance, the political landscape will self-regulate. BJP’s goal is to ensure that the opposition’s power remains limited.

Long-term perspective for BJP

Whether Modi remains PM for many more years or a different BJP leader takes over, to the majority of citizens, it’s all part of the broader democratic game.

The key is that BJP should remain the dominant political party in India. The fact that the BJP has earned a third consecutive mandate, even if only without an absolute majority, shows it continues to have the support of most of the electorate.

Some may argue that since BJP polled less than 50% of votes, the majority voted against it. This argument doesn’t hold up. If voters truly wanted to unseat the BJP and NDA, they would have rallied behind the best-equipped opposition candidates in most constituencies and defeated the NDA in the Lok Sabha polls. That hasn’t been the case.

Conclusion

In the broader scheme of things, BJP’s long-term success may not hinge on maintaining an absolute majority at the center and in most states but rather on navigating the natural shifts in power that come with democratic competition. BJP is strong enough to weather these challenges. Such fluctuations can actually help keep it responsive, adaptable, and successful.

By allowing for the ebb and flow of democratic forces, the BJP could maintain its predominant position in Indian politics for many years, as long as it faces only the current, broadly-discredited opposition, at the national level.

Though BJP aims to win at the center and in every state, its central leadership is unlikely to be unduly worried about the loss of some seats in the Lok Sabha or losing power in states like Karnataka, Jammu & Kashmir, and even Maharashtra or Jharkhand if it comes to that.

Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

For all the latest updates, download PGurus App.

The post Why BJP must be silently happy appeared first on PGurus.