US election: Polls aggregation shifts, giving Kamala Harris a minuscule lead over Trump

RealClearPolitics shows a narrow edge for Harris

As the United States prepares for the highly anticipated presidential election, the latest aggregation of national polling data has shown a slight shift in favor of Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, giving her a narrow lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump.

On Monday night, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling aggregation, which previously indicated a marginal lead for Trump, now shows Harris ahead by just 0.1%. The Democratic candidate is polling at 48.7%, while Trump trails slightly with 48.6%. The shift came after a poll conducted by National Public Radio (NPR) and Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) gave Harris a 4% lead over the Republican challenger. The poll’s margin of error was cited as 3.5%, with Harris’ lead calculated to be 0.5% above the margin.

This marks a reversal from Sunday’s numbers, where Trump had a slight edge in the RCP aggregation by 0.1%. With just weeks remaining until election day, this small but significant shift reflects the dynamic nature of the race, with new data continually impacting the trajectory of the campaign.

A tight race ahead

Despite the fluctuations in polling data, one thing remains clear: the race is incredibly tight. The outcome in key swing states, which can shift from election to election, will likely determine the next president. With just over a month to go, both candidates are focusing on these crucial battlegrounds, hoping to sway undecided voters and mobilize their bases.

The Electoral College system—which has caused controversy in past elections—remains a decisive factor. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by nearly 3 million votes but lost the presidency to Trump due to his victory in the Electoral College, where he secured 306 votes to Clinton’s 227.

The polls and the swing states

The aggregation is based on multiple national polls, with eight taken in October contributing to RCP’s calculation. These polls showed a mixed picture: two giving Harris a 2% lead, one giving Trump a 1% lead, and the remaining four indicating a tie between the candidates.

However, the national popular vote is not as crucial as it once seemed due to the Electoral College system. Under this system, the swing states—which can be won by either party—ultimately decide the election. RCP’s analysis indicates that Trump still leads in five of the seven key swing states, while Harris holds a lead in two.

Trump currently leads in several crucial battleground states:

• Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), where Trump holds a 0.5% lead.
• Georgia and North Carolina (16 electoral votes each), where Trump is ahead.
• Nevada (6 electoral votes) and Arizona (11 electoral votes), where Trump also leads.

On the other hand, Harris leads in two pivotal states:

• Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), where she holds a slight advantage.
• Michigan (15 electoral votes), where Harris is also ahead.

As the campaigns intensify, both Harris and Trump are expected to focus on securing key swing states, where the race is still too close to call. While national polling data provides an overview, the election outcome will be determined by the results in the individual states that are up for grabs.

With less than a month to go until Election Day, campaign strategies will likely become even more targeted as both candidates fight to win over voters in states like Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, and Wisconsin—states that could tip the balance and decide the presidency.

As the race tightens and new polling data continues to emerge, all eyes will be on these swing states, where every vote counts.

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