Time to tame the Dragon

China’s aggressive expansion across Asia

Geopolitics is about power play. The West (US, Europe, Canada, etc) and Russia have been displaying this all the time. But they have been covert about it, rarely as brazen as China.

China’s dangerous and aggressive posturing and expansionist policies have been on full display across Asia, from the South China Sea to the Himalayas.

The latest strong-arm tactic of China is its unilateral plan to build the world’s largest dam in Tibet across the Brahmaputra river, causing grave concerns of draughts and floods in India and Bangladesh.

Its bullying tactics, ranging from economic coercion to military maneuvers, have become the norm, with global major powers often accepting this as a way of life.

For China’s neighbours, however, the challenge is more immediate and existential. These countries, relatively smaller and militarily weaker than China, face constant encroachments on their sovereignty, trade, and territorial integrity.

Do China’s neighbours have any significant leverage? Yes, if they act collectively.

Because, we hear that China’s power is now at its lowest ebb in decades, economically strained, politically fractured, and militarily uncertain.

Xi Jinping’s stock within the Chinese political ecosystem has been diminishing, military morale is shaky after the dismissal of several top generals, and the population is shrinking.

This may be the best time for regional powers to form a block akin to NATO, one that serves to deter Chinese expansionism and maintain regional stability. No one will grudge China’s growth as long as one is confident that China will reciprocate it.

The China conundrum: A bully unchecked

China’s rise has been accompanied by a pattern of territorial incursions, ‘deadly embrace’ debt diplomacy, and technology theft from the West, often with the active connivance of its emigrants.

Beijing’s greedy “salami-slicing” strategy, gradually seizing small but strategic areas without bloodshed, has allowed it to expand its territory and sphere of influence dangerously without triggering a war. This has been evident in:

• Taiwan – Repeated threats of invasion and economic coercion.
• The South China Sea – Militarization of disputed islands.
• Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh – Persistent border stand-offs with India.
• Japan – Escalating tensions over certain islands claimed by Beijing.

However, while China’s military power may be high on paper, defence analysts point out that it has remained untested in the battle for decades. India has exposed the weakness in China’s military might in the skirmishes in recent years. It has proved that all that China needs is a stare back.

This presents an opportunity for China’s neighbours to present a united front and demand collective addressing and resolution of ongoing disputes, forcing Beijing to negotiate amicably with all countries at once, rather than allowing it to take them on one at a time, at a time of its choosing.

China’s neighbours — Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, India, and South Korea —frequently find themselves in isolated skirmishes.

Despite being surrounded by neighbours who China keeps threatening and their dismay, Beijing exploits their lack of unity to maintain the upper hand.

China’s confrontations with the West: A growing flashpoint

Beyond Asia, China’s aggressive behavior has triggered alarm across the West. The US, the EU, and Australia have faced economic coercion, technology theft, and political manipulation.

Technology theft and trade wars – China’s large-scale intellectual property theft led to the US-China trade war, with billions of dollars worth of mutual tariffs and sanctions.

Economic sanctions were imposed by China after Australia called for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19.

EU and 5G networks – China’s Huawei faced bans across Europe (and elsewhere) due to genuine espionage concerns.

Rare earth’s dominance – China threatened to cut off the West from rare earth minerals, crucial for high-tech industries. It tries to corner all critical resources and bully the West (and the entire world).

These incidents reveal a pattern of coercion that exposes China’s tactics. By standing firm alongside China’s neighbours, Western nations will not only safeguard their economic interests but also reinforce the global pushback against unchecked Chinese aggression, and work towards a rules-based order (at least on paper).

Why the West’s approach won’t work for neighbours

Western powers, particularly the US, have adopted a mix of confrontation and accommodation. While this helps them to some extent, China’s geographical proximity to its neighbours means that long-term regional security cannot depend solely on external actors. For instance:

• The US Pivot to Asia is likely to provide military backing (doubtful under Trump) but may not support during low-intensity conflicts, and in any case, not without demanding its pound of flesh.
• Europe is more focused on trade and other self-interests, and less willing to jeopardize its economic ties with China.
• Russia will mostly align with China against Western alliances.

And China’s neighbours would fear that, even if they take the help of the US or Europe, these powers could covertly or overtly strike a deal with China and leave them in the lurch.

Despite all this, if ever Xi Jinping has been politically at his weakest, it’s now.

China’s internal political confusion and economic headwinds make it increasingly vulnerable to coordinated external pressure.

The goal of China’s neighbours should be to use this moment to compel Beijing to resolve its disputes simultaneously — addressing all outstanding issues with its neighbours in one go, rather than succumbing to piecemeal negotiations that would favor Chinese divide-and-rule tactics.

A regional alliance: The NATO model for Asia

A potential counterbalance could emerge in the form of an Asia-Pacific Security Alliance, a pact designed specifically to contain China’s expansionism and bullying.

While full military integration (like NATO) may not be appropriate, a security-focused cooperation platform, to start with, could yield tangible benefits.

Key objectives:

1. Mutual Defense Agreement – An attack on one member state triggers collective defense measures, over the land, air, and seas as appropriate.
2. Joint Military Exercises – Regular coordinated land, sea, and air drills to enhance interoperability.
3. Intelligence Sharing – Coordinated tracking of Chinese military movements.
4. Economic Countermeasures – Joint sanctions and trade restrictions in response to Chinese aggression on any member.

Potential members

• Core – India, Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, and Indonesia.
• Associate Members – Australia, New Zealand, and the US (observer role).

Strategic convergence with the West

Luckily, the West recognizes that instability in Asia-Pacific directly impacts global trade and security.

While local leadership remains crucial, joint naval patrols, supply chain diversification, and technology partnerships can deter Chinese adventurism. This convergence of interests offers a rare window for forging deeper Asia-Pacific partnerships, whose benefits will span beyond China’s containment.

Challenges to regional unity

Creating such an alliance is easier said than done. China’s economic influence, combined with internal disputes among Asian countries, presents formidable roadblocks. For instance:

• India and Japan face maritime disputes with China but have their own regional rivalries.
• Vietnam and the Philippines share common adversaries but lack military heft.
• Taiwan’s Participation could provoke direct retaliation from Beijing.

To navigate these complexities, a think tank or informal coalition could serve as a preliminary first step. This body can draft a foundational document that paves the way for subsequent formal alliances by fostering dialogue and ironing out differences.

Conclusion: Unity is a strength

China’s bullying tactics thrive on division. The fact that it has been building its arsenal including nuclear, and defence infrastructures, and weaponizing everything like the shared rivers and sea routes, at breakneck speed, shows that delay every day strengthens it and weakens its neighbours.

While diverse in culture and capability, its neighbours share a common interest— preserving their sovereignty and securing regional stability.

By forging a collective front, these nations can send a clear message that, while probably individually weaker, and united, they can easily stand firm against the China bully and collectively tame the Dragon, starting now.

The road ahead will not be easy, but with sustained dialogue, strategic cooperation, and backing from the West, the foundation for a robust regional alliance can be laid.

In the long run, such solidarity may prove the only effective antidote to China’s unchecked rise. Not a day should be wasted.

Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

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