Flip the covert war to deter China

How India can deter China’s shadow warfare through covert strategy

China has long mastered the art of waging war without declaring one. Through proxies, narratives, and influence.

China rarely fights its own wars because wars cost money. Proxy wars cost much less.

India has borne the brunt of this strategy of China, facing asymmetric provocations through Pakistan and now Bangladesh, under China’s strategic cover.

US intel reports appear to suggest that China is redoubling its efforts at arming Pakistan and instigating it for more guerrilla attacks on India, and preparing its defence better.

If India always plays defence, China will continue with its low-cost games, inflicting high costs on India.

It is time to explore how India can deter China, by engaging in covert counter-proxy strategies to offset China’s covert, deniable, soft-touch, and high-impact tools, inflicting high costs on it.

There is so much that India can do, anonymously, not traceable back to India (-even if traced back, so what? China does it!); a few samples are given below.

China should be put on the defensive.

This is not about ego, retaliation, or escalation. It is about strategic deterrence by building credible costs for China’s shadow wars.

1. Tibet: Cultural and political resurrection

To keep the Tibetan flame alive and deny China a monopoly over the region’s narrative:

• Support Tibetan identity revival through global cultural events and Buddhist festivals
• Promote Tibetan language media and youth training in India for digital communication and advocacy
• Enable diaspora mobilization to keep the Tibetan cause alive in Western consciousness

2. Balochistan & Sindh: Targeting Pakistan – CPEC link

To disrupt China’s CPEC dreams through internal instability in Pakistan:

• Facilitate non-state humanitarian support for Baloch and Sindhi dissidents via Gulf and Western NGOs
• Amplify rights violations in these regions through global media and diaspora forums

3. Digital proxy war: Satire, exposure & disruption

To undermine China’s global brand through content that spreads virally and safely:

• Seed anonymous YouTube/ Telegram channels run from outside India to expose China’s overreach
• Promote satirical content that mocks China’s authoritarian policies and Belt & Road blunders

4. Xinjiang: Quiet Muslim solidarity

To challenge China’s Islamic hypocrisy and run down its credibility in Muslim-majority nations:

• Subtly support Uyghur cultural and rights groups operating in Malaysia, Turkey, and Europe
• Promote Uyghur arts and literature through sponsored cultural grants and awards

5. Taiwan: Quiet affirmation

To signal support for democratic Taiwan, while maintaining plausible deniability:

• Increase trade and academic cooperation with Taiwan without official diplomatic recognition
• Allow Indian think-tanks to host Taiwan scholars and forums, esp on tech and freedom of navigation

6. Anti-BRI civil society support

To turn local populations against the Chinese presence without Indian fingerprints:

• Covertly fund civil society watchdogs in BRI-affected nations (Sri Lanka, Nepal, Myanmar) to expose bad loans, environmental damage, and sovereignty erosion
• Collaborate with local journalists and youth groups to create awareness of China’s economic colonization

7. Pop culture counteroffensive

To let popular entertainment shape global sentiment about China, just as Hollywood did during the Cold War:

• Back documentaries, dramas, political thrillers, and web series that reflect authoritarianism, debt traps, and surveillance dystopias
• Partner with global exiles from Tibet, Hong Kong, and Xinjiang as creators or advisors

8. Diaspora diplomacy

Objective: Build a decentralized global advocacy network without official entanglement.

Empower Indian-origin chambers and advocacy groups in the US, UK, and Canada to:

• Advocate against Chinese technology in infrastructure
• Publicize CCP interference and censorship globally

9. Borders cultural messaging

To fight the Chinese war of naming Indian places by legitimate and humourous counter-offensives:

• Let local influencers and cultural groups in Ladakh, Arunachal, and NE India produce history-based content refuting Chinese claims
• Promote lots of private initiatives of factual yet satirical maps and alternative names for Chinese territories based on Indic heritage. The following are examples, and we have as much proof as China has on our places (in fact, better).
  • Lake Mansarovar (Tibet) as Kailasa-Manas Tirtha, its historic Indian name
  • Tsaparang and Tholing (Western Tibet) as Prachin Purang or Bod Mandala
  • Shigatse as Shiksha Sthana
  • Lhasa as Rishinagari or Bhikshu Nagar
  • Chamdo as Shambhala Dvara
  • Nyingchi (Nyingtri, the area opposite to Arunachal Pradesh) as Adi Purva Bhoomi (West Arunachal Pradesh)

10. Anti-CCP tech ecosystem

To offer global South countries an ethical, secure digital alternative to China:

• Support the development and spread of privacy-first, open-source alternatives to Chinese tech platforms
• Train developers across Asia and Africa to adopt Indian or Western non-spied tech stacks

Proxy for proxy, but with subtle warning

India doesn’t need to play dirty to win. But it must stop playing naïve.

China has long relied on proxies, deniability, and psychological dominance. India must now respond, not out of vengeance, but to build credible deterrence.

The battlefield today is not just geography, but narrative, influence, and perception. And that is where India must draw its lines.

However, before launching a full-scale proxy counter-offensive, India should privately issue a polite but clear warning to China through diplomatic backchannels.

The message must be firm

“India does not view China as an enemy, unless China wants to be one. No two nations will agree on every issue. But differences need not mean hostility. If China chooses to respect India’s sovereignty and refrain from harming India by every means, including using proxies, India will reciprocate. If China persists with aggression, India is prepared to respond, not loudly, but decisively, through equally deniable means.”

This calibrated warning gives China an opportunity to back off while preparing India for escalation, if necessary. It keeps the door open for peace, but also arms India with quiet resolve.

Because sometimes, peace is preserved not by silence, but by the knowledge that provocation will come at a cost, even if that cost is never officially claimed.

China built its rise through opacity. India must shape its ascent through strategic clarity and truth, occasionally delivered through invisible hands.

Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

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