Restoration of statehood: Mr. HM Amit Shah, sudden change in tone and tenor of Omar Abdullah is a dangerous trap

Omar Abdullah’s shift: A dangerous trap?

Convinced that provocative statements and sharp attacks on the Narendra Modi government will only cause delay in the restoration of statehood, the desperate, powerless, and pro-greater autonomy Chief Minister Omar Abdullah has devised a canny strategy to hoodwink and mislead the powers-that-be in the South and North Blocks to achieve his immediate goal: Statehood. This can be seen from the sudden change in his tone and tenor. The change took place after November 8, 2024, the last day of the first-ever provocative session of the Jammu and Kashmir (JK) Union Territory (UT) Assembly. His counsels to his party MLAs and leaders, the line he took on the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) and One Nation One Election plan/ simultaneous polls, and how he commended the pre-budget consultations held by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sithraman at Jaisalmer, Rajasthan, only served to establish that he had devised a strategy calculated to wooing Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah and achieving full state status for J&K as a first step towards the final goal: Greater Autonomy Bordering On Virtual Sovereignty.

I am not exaggerating things; I am only making a statement of fact. Take, for example, what Omar Abdullah said on December 7, 13, 18 and 20. On December 7, Omar Abdullah asked the NC legislators and party leaders during the party meeting at Srinagar to “stay calm till March (2025) as he hoped that the Centre would restore statehood to J&K by then” and urged them “not to take any step which will lead to confrontation between his government and Lieutenant Governor (LG) administration and cause a delay in the restoration of statehood.” His counsel came after some NC legislators and leaders told Omar Abdullah that the “non-cooperation from bureaucrats and even lower level officials are testing their patience as people have a lot of expectations from the government.”[1]

On December 13, Omar Abdullah sprung a big surprise by taking a line that was not consistent with his ally Congress’s line. That day, he virtually spoke the language of the Narendra Modi government while defending elections through EVMs. Giving an interview with the news agency PTI, Omar Abdullah, inter-alia, said: “When you (Congress and Rahul Gandhi) get a hundred plus members of Parliament using the same EVMs, and you celebrate that as sort of a victory for your party, you can’t then a few months later turn around and say…we don’t like these EVMs because now the election results aren’t going the way we would like them to.”[2]

A day after Omar Abdullah dismissed allegations of EVM tampering and raised “selective” blaming, the irked and embarrassed Congress hit back. It denied Omar Abdullah’s assertions, saying that “it was the Samajwadi Party, Nationalist Congress Party, and Shiv Sena (UBT) that raised concerns about EVMs, while the Congress only ‘addressed’ the Election Commission of India (ECI).”[3]

What the Congress said didn’t go down well with Omar Abdullah. On December 18 also hit back and, among other things, said: “He will not refrain from speaking the truth after becoming the Chief Minister…If no EVM, should we go back to the ballot paper? Have we forgotten what used to happen with ballot paper? Votes were forced into ballot boxes. I have not forgotten that. My first election was a paper election. Also, my second election was a paper election. Later, these machines came. If not EVM, then what?” “He has not changed his politics after becoming Chief Minister and is not speaking the language of the BJP,” he also said.[4]

Again, on December 16, Omar Abdullah took a line that was different from that of the Congress. That day, he virtually extended support to the One Nation One Election plan or simultaneous Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. What did he say? He said: “Development in J&K was affected to some extent this year due to back-to-back elections but the officers have now been directed to give pace to the works in remaining three and half months of the current financial year…”[5]

The views of Omar Abdullah on EVMs and simultaneous polls also provoked the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Peoples Conference (PC). Reflecting on the issue, the president of the youth wing of the PDP Waheed Para, inter-alia, said: “One nation one election plan will erase ‘whatever remains’ of the political voice of J&K…This is not just an administrative shift; it directly threatens the political, cultural, and legal identity of J&K…These concerns will be lost in the national political noise, leaving us with no room to address our specific needs. One nation one election plan threatens to silence our voices, allowing national issues to dominate and undermining our region’s distinctiveness…J&K is a region of diverse political and cultural identities. Both Jammu and Kashmir have different needs and priorities. Holding state and national elections together would only deepen divisions.”[6]

As for the PC chairman and MLA Sajad Lone, he accused Omar Abdullah of “surrendering to the BJP.” “Seems a gentleman (Omar Abdullah) is desperate and bending his back backward to meet Lords (Narendra Modi and Amit Shah) in Delhi,” Lone, among other things, said.[7]

And, on December 20, Omar Abdullah lauded what he described as “the platform for facilitating important discussions on tax reforms and pre-budget consultations.[8]” That day, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had held pre-budget consultations with representatives of States and Union Territories with the Legislature, including J&K, for the forthcoming 2024-25 budget at Jaisalmer in Rajasthan. Omar Abdullah attended that meeting.

In between, Zahoor Malik, senior editor, Greater Kashmir, who knows Kashmiri leadership and its ideology and fully understands the nature of Kashmiri Muslim politics commented on the precarious situation Omar Abdullah was in. On December 17, he, among other things, said: “Till the restoration of statehood, Omar Abdullah government will find its patience getting tested again and again on various fronts. Any signs of impatience or tiredness can prove counter-productive for its interests. Keeping the flock together is equally important for the NC leadership. The new year, 2025, can be more tricky for the Omar Abdullah Government. Tougher tasks can emerge for it.”[9]

In the meantime, reports have emanated that the party of the Abdullahs, National Conference (NC), may join the BJP-led NDA as a part of a strategy to obtain full state status for J&K UT. A report in the Jammu-based English language daily, Daily Excelsior (Dec 22), in this regard, read like this: “J&K’s ruling party might be preparing grounds for a return to the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in exchange for the Union Territory’s statehood.[10]” However, the NC has ruled out joining the BJP-led NDA and dismissed as baseless a media report in this regard. “This news being peddled by certain so-called journalists is nothing but a blatant lie, driven by malicious intent to mislead the people of J&K,” the NC chief spokesperson and MLA Tanvir Sadiq has said.

Whatever the truth of the matter, one thing is clear: Omar Abdullah is desperate. He wants restoration of statehood to play the games he played between October 2002, when he quit A B Vajpayee’s government and the NC came out of the NDA, and November 8, 2024, the last day of the first-ever Assembly session. And, to achieve his objective he and his party can adopt any kind of methodology. Those who know something about the history and politics of the Abdullahs, Sheikh Abdullah and Farooq Abdullah included, would vouch for this fact.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah would do well to appreciate the fact that the sudden change in the tone and tenor of Omar Abdullah is nothing but a dangerous trap and it would be suicidal for the nation to walk into it. They would also do well to ask their think tanks to go through the 2024 election manifestos of the NC and examine the political implications of what the Omar Abdullah government did on October 17 during the first cabinet meeting and during the four-day assembly session (November 4-8). It’s imperative.

Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

References:

[1] Omar asks party leaders, legislators to stay calm till Statehood is restored – Dec 8, 2024, Daily Excelsior

[2] Omar Abdullah Tells Congress To Stop Whinging About EVMs, Accept Poll Results – Dec 15, 2024, PTI

[3] Why this approach after being CM?’: Congress hits back at Omar Abdullah’s remarks on EVM – Dec 16, 2024, The Times of India

[4] Not speaking BJP’s language: CM on EVM row – Dec 19, 2024, The Tribune

[5] Development hit due to back-to-back polls, efforts on to expedite works now: CM – Dec 17, 2024, Daily Excelsior

[6] Simultaneous election plan will erase political voice of J&K: Para – Dec 16, 2024, The Tribune

[7] Omar Abdullah echoes Amit Shah on Congress and EVMs – Dec 17, 2024, India Today

[8] FM holds pre-budget consultations with CMs, Dy CMs, FMs of States/UTs – Dec 21, 2024, Daily Excelsior

[9] NC government moving with cautious approach – Dec 17, 2024, Greater Kashmir

[10] NC Rules Out Joining BJP-Led NDA – Dec 22, 2024, Daily Excelsior

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