Stronger Modi meeting with Trump, ‘the trade and tariff guy’

PM Modi to meet President Trump

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to visit Washington from February 12 to 14, fresh off a historic electoral victory in New Delhi. Expectations and speculations are high as he meets with US President Donald Trump, who is now in his second term. During Trump’s first term, the “Howdy, Modi!” in 2019 was historic and rare in that a US President attended a foreign leader’s diaspora event.

A stronger Modi and Bharat in 2025

Modi arrives in Washington with an unprecedented political mandate. His party’s sweeping victory in Delhi’s assembly elections—securing 48 out of 70 seats after 27 years—has not only dismantled the decade-long rule of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) but also reinforced the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) dominance across India. With commanding wins in Maharashtra and Haryana, Modi’s National Democratic Alliance (NDA) now controls nearly two-thirds of all states and union territories.

This consolidation of power strengthens Modi’s global stature, positioning him as a leader with both domestic legitimacy and international influence. Bharat under Modi has attained the fifth-largest Global Economic Ranking with a projected future rank of being the third-largest economy by 2030.

Modi vs. Trump: Contrasting leadership styles

Modi, in his third term, is a seasoned statesman—measured, strategic, and diplomatic. His leadership is marked by a nuanced ability to forge personal relationships with world leaders, balancing nationalism with global engagement. His hugging diplomacy has served him well.

Trump, in contrast, remains as unpredictable as ever- driven by a transactional, forceful approach centered on trade and tariffs. His “America First” doctrine often disregards diplomatic subtleties, favoring strong-arm tactics. While he maintains significant influence at home, with Republican trifecta in Washington and significant control in many state legislatures and governorships, his perception of US global supremacy remains outdated.

The White House no longer wields the power it once had. Trump’s dismantling of USAID and threats to quit or minimize its contribution to agencies like the World Health Organization, United Nations, UNESCO, etc. simply stand to tarnish the US’s global influence further.

Despite differences, Modi and Trump share striking similarities. Both disrupted entrenched political systems—Modi by dismantling the dominance of the Congress Party and Trump by upending Washington’s political establishment. Their populist appeal thrives on nationalism, a direct connection with their base via social media, and an often hostile stance toward mainstream media. However, Modi exhibits a more refined leadership style, emphasizing collaboration over confrontation.

The Modi-Trump agenda: Trade and immigration at the forefront

Trade Deficit and Tariffs: The US-India trade deficit has surged, nearly doubling from $20–24 billion in 2014–2020 to over $45 billion in 2024. (Modi became Prime Minister in 2014). Given Trump’s past reliance on tariffs as a negotiation tactic—recently seen in his dealings with China, Mexico, and Canada—he may push for similar measures against India. Modi will need to navigate these trade tensions while emphasizing India’s role as a key economic and strategic partner, and geopolitical hedge against rising China.

The Immigration Dilemma: Immigration presents a dual challenge. The recent deportation of nearly 100 undocumented Indian immigrants—shackled in handcuffs and leg irons—has drawn heavy criticism. While India has agreed to the return of illegal immigrants, Modi must demand a more humane and dignified process. The US must disregard the standard procedure employed by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) for security purposes.

Another critical issue is the future of H-1B visas. Indian professionals dominate the US high-tech sector yet concerns persist about their impact on American jobs. Trump’s “America First” stance may put H-1B policies on the bargaining table, but the US risks losing its technological edge if restrictions become too stringent. With China aggressively advancing in science and technology, Trump must tread carefully—America cannot afford to alienate the very talented Indian workforce that fuels its innovation. Trump has to just look around to see how many CEOs are of Indian origin.

Beyond trade and immigration: Strategic cooperation

Modi’s visit is sure to focus on strengthening Indo-US collaboration in critical areas:

• Defense and Space: India’s growing capabilities in space exploration and defense manufacturing make it a valuable ally. Expect new bilateral agreements in these sectors.
• Geopolitical Issues: Discussions will likely cover the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the Indo-Pacific strategy under the QUAD alliance.
• Counterterrorism: Both nations have suffered at the hands of terrorism in the US and multiple attacks in India. Addressing radicalization and global security threats will be key to a more peaceful world.

Modi’s unique leverage

Perhaps the most crucial takeaway for Trump is this: Modi is uniquely positioned on the global stage. He is one of the few leaders who can engage both Trump and Putin with equal authority, trust, and respect. He maintains credibility with Israel and the Palestinians while also being respected by the broader Islamic world. As global tensions rise, the US would do well to recognize Modi’s growing influence—not just as a trade partner, but as a diplomatic and economic powerhouse shaping the world order.

Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.
3. The author acknowledges that his ideas in this write-up were reframed using the Chat GPT.

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