Jammu in danger: Assembly elections fraught with dangerous ramifications

Electing new Assembly

The process to elect the first-ever 90-member Legislative Assembly in the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) has been on since August 20. It will consist of 47 MLAs from Kashmir (all Muslim) and 43 from Jammu province (31 Hindus and 12 Muslims). The most significant aspect of the whole situation is the terrorist and separatist-infested over 99 percent. Muslim Kashmir is that a large number of religio-political parties and a large number of independent candidates, including those belonging to the banned Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), have taken the plunge to try their luck in the 47 Assembly constituencies into which the Valley has been territorially divided.

Kashmiri parties and their leadership

The religio-political parties which have fielded candidates include the National Conference (NC) of pro-semi-independence Abdullahs, the pro-autonomy Congress of Tariq Hammed Karra/ Sonia Gandhi, the pro-self-rule People’s Democratic Party (PDP) of Mehbooba Mufti, the pro-semi-independence CPIM of Mohd Yousuf Tarigami/ Sitaram Yachury, the pro-separate Kashmiri nationhood Jammu and Kashmir Peoples Conference (JKPC) of Sajad Lone, the pro-autonomy Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party (JKAP) of Altaf Bukhari, the pro-plebiscite Awami Itihad Party (AIP) of jailed Engineer Rashid, the pro-autonomy Peoples Democratic Front (PDF) of Hakim Yaseen and the Tahreek-e-Awam (TeA). The banned Jamaat-e-Islami, which cannot contest elections under its own banner, has fielded candidates in a number of constituencies and they are contesting the election as independent candidates. All these outfits are headed by Sunnis, who ruled the roost in J&K between October 1947 and June 2019 and muddied the Indian waters 24X7 and who also left the Central government with no other option but to bring the erstwhile State under the Governor/ President rule umpteen times. J&K remained under Governor/ President rule for almost 14 years. If all these parties are headed by Kashmiri Sunnis, the story of the independent candidates in Kashmir is no different. All or nearly all the independent candidates are Sunni Muslims.

All the Kashmiri parties and independent candidates consider J&K a disputed territory. They say day in and day out that J&K is a Muslim-majority region and it automatically deserves a different dispensation. They only love the Indian rupees. They only want land, jobs, and seats in educational and technical, and professional institutions outside Kashmir. They only want the Government of India to help them establish business establishments across the nation and sell their products in the Indian markets. They hate and despise any kind of trick with the rest of the country and the rest of the countrymen. They dismiss the non-Kashmiri-Muslims as outsiders, aliens, aggressors, and a threat to the J&K’s demography.

Pre-poll alliance

Yet another notable aspect of the whole situation is the alliance between the NC, the Congress, and the CPI-M, all members of the ultra-separatist People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), which is headed by none other than the NC chief Farooq Abdullah. Mehbooba Mufti, chief of the PDP, which has been left high and dry or abandoned by the NC, the Congress, and the CPIM, is the vice-chairperson of the PAGD, whose single-point agenda has not only been the maintenance of the politico-constitutional framework as it existed in J&K till August 4, 2019, but also to help the aggressor Pakistan promote its geo-political and religious interests in J&K.

Under the seat-sharing formula, 51 seats have gone to the NC, mostly in Kashmir, 32 to the Congress, mostly in Jammu, and one to the CPIM in the Valley. There will be a “friendly” contest between the NC and the Congress in five Assembly constituencies, one in Kashmir and four in Jammu. One seat has also been allotted to the now almost non-existent Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party (JKNPP), which between November 2, 2002 and November 1, 2005, extended support to the PDP-led coalition government after sacrificing the interests of Jammu for the sake of power and profit. The JKNPP then had four MLAs, all from Jammu province. The seat that has been earmarked by the NC, the Congress, and the CPIM for the JKNPP is in Jammu province. It is the Chenani Assembly constituency.

Subversive poll planks

Yet another striking aspect of the whole situation is that all these Sunni-headed Kashmiri outfits and formations, without any exception, have been seeking the people’s mandate on the plank that a Kashmiri Muslim vote for them will be a vote against the August 2019 reforms, including abrogation of the state’s special status, bifurcation of the erstwhile J&K State into two Union Territories, and not only for the restoration of the pre-August 5, 2019 politico-constitutional status, but also for the resolution of the “Kashmir issue.” To be more precise, the stated objective of all these outfits is – to give us the mandate to ensure segregation of J&K from the Indian politico-constitutional framework; and ensure that everything that exists in J&K – land, water, jobs, contracts, and what not — becomes the sole preserve of Kashmir and Kashmiri Muslims; ensure that the clock is moved back in J&K by 72 years; and ensure “meaningful” dialogue with Pakistan and Cross LoC trade.

Electoral exercise and the likely outcome

The Kashmiri outfits and formations, including the NC, the Congress, the PDP, the CPIM, the JKPC, the JKAP, the AIP, and the PDF plus independent candidates belonging to the JeI will win all the 47 seats in Kashmir. Besides, the NC, the Congress, and the PDP could win around ten seats in Jammu province, especially in the Muslim-dominated areas in Ramban, Kishtwar, Doda, Poonch, Rajouri, Reasi and Udhampur districts. In other words, the Kashmiri parties will have around 57 MLAs in the 90-member House.

There are cogent reasons to believe that the NC, which had won 15 seats, and the Congress, which had won 12 seats in 2014, are unlikely to win 45+ seats. They plus the CPIM may win around 30 seats. It’s obvious that they would need the support of around 16 MLAs to form the first-ever elected government after the 2019 reforms introduced by the Narendra Modi government. And, again, there are potent reasons to believe that other Muslim MLAs belonging to other Kashmiri parties would happily come forward and extend support to the NC/ Congress/ CPIM, all constituents of the I.N.D.I. Alliance as their attitude towards India and the Indian Constitution and their stand on J&K is the same.

Dangerous ramifications

What will be the immediate results if these Kashmiri parties form a multi-party government, which they will? Some of them will be as follows:-

1. Re-rise of jihadists like Abdullahs, Muftis, and others of their ilk.
2. Grievous injury to the nation’s paramount interests and promotion of the Pakistani sinister cause.
3. Concerted efforts to negate the abrogation of Articles 35A and 370.
4. Further destruction of Jammu’s socio-cultural and politico-economic interests.
5. Demographic invasion of Jammu’s Hindu-majority areas with a renewed vigour so that a Kashmir-like situation is created.
6. Expulsion of the leftover Hindus from Kashmir.
7. Government jobs to the children of terrorists and separatists.
8. Release of terrorists and separatists from jails.
9. Revocation of Public Safety Act and similar other laws plus anti-terror laws.
10. More concessions to the illegally-settled Rohingyas and Bangladeshis.
11. Fillip to the menace of terrorism, separatism and communalism.
12. Conversion of jails into dens of break-India activities.

Can BJP avert the impending disaster?

Can the BJP avert the impending disaster? The answer is a big NO. The BJP cannot avert the impending disaster. The reasons are not far to seek. One reason is that the support base of the BJP is limited to only around 30 Hindu-majority Assembly constituencies, all in Jammu province, and it just cannot form government in the Union Territory. The other reason is that the BJP is treading a path that has all the potential of damaging its poll prospects even in these 30-odd constituencies. The case in point is the unwillingness of the party’s high command and the Narendra Modi-led NDA government to make a solemn commitment that the BJP if elected in Jammu province, will grant a definite and comprehensive political package to the people of Jammu province.

That the party high command and the Narendra Modi-led NDA government are unwilling to announce a political package for the ignored and highly discriminated against Jammu province, which is their core constituency, could be seen from what the Union Home Minister, Amit Shah, said, on September 1. He said: “Development works done there (in J&K) will be the basis of the party’s campaign in the three-phase assembly elections scheduled to be held on September 18 and 25 and October 1.” The people of Jammu need a political package that ends the age-old domination of Kashmir over Jammu; frees the Hindus of Jammu from the cruel clutches of Kashmir; empowers them to manage their own affairs in a meaningful manner; and protects and promotes their distinct identity and that ensures the unity and integrity of Jammu province. The developmental plank cannot conciliate and win over the alienated Jammu province. For, the problem being faced by the people of Jammu province is political in nature and it can only be surmounted by political means. Will the BJP think tanks rise to the occasion? Let’s wait and see.

Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

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