Election scene in separatist infested Kashmir frightening things not that rosy for BJP in marginalized Jammu – Part 2

The previous 1 part of the article can be accessed here Part 1. This is the second part

Muslim attitude

One thing is crystal clear: The BJP will lose its security deposit in all the 47 Assembly constituencies into which Kashmir has been territorially divided. The reasons are not far to seek. The most important one is that the Muslims of Kashmir, like their coreligionists in other parts of the country, hate the BJP. Their one-point agenda all along was, and has been to ensure its defeat. The story of the Muslims’ attitude to the BJP in Jammu province is no different. This, notwithstanding the fact that the BJP gave political reservation to the Gujjar and Bakerwal Muslims and Pathowari-speaking Muslims. There are at least eight assembly segments in Jammu province where the Gujjars, Bakerwals, and Pathowaris determine the poll outcome as they constitute a majority population there. The BJP will come out of the electoral exercise in these constituencies minus everything. All these constituencies are in the border districts of Poonch and Rajouri plus in Udhampur and Reasi districts. The fact of the matter is that there are only 31 to 33 constituencies where the BJP can really test political waters and think of registering victories.

The State of BJP

Even the picture in the Hindu-majority constituencies is not that rosy for the BJP. One of the fundamental reasons is that the BJP has lost much of its sheen and appeal because of its uninspiring local leadership. It hardly fought for the Jammu cause. It hardly made common cause with its core constituency, the Hindus. It hardly represented Jammu’s aspirations in the assembly when (March 2015-June 2018) it shared power with the Kashmir-centric and militant, separatist and Pakistan-friendly People’s Democratic Party. On the contrary, many of its lawmakers and ministers danced to the tunes of their Kashmiri masters during that dark period so that they could remain on their right side and promote their own vested interests. They never put their foot down. They never ever presented a true picture of facts to the party’s high command. They not only failed their own constituency but also on the crucial occasions spoke the language of the Kashmiri parties.

That the BJP has lost much of its sheen and appeal could be seen from a huge loss it suffered in the just-held Lok Sabha elections in Jammu province in terms of vote share despite the no-holds-barred campaign unleashed by the Prime Minister, the Home Minister, the Defence Minister, the UP Chief Minister, and other senior BJP leaders against the dynastic politics and in favour of abrogation of Article 370, Ayodhya, Varanasi, Mathura, etc, etc. Its vote share came down from 46.7 percent in 2019 to 24.4 percent in 2024 – a decline of 22.3 percent. Of course, the BJP created a history of sorts by winning both the Jammu and Udhampur seats for the third time in a row.

BJP’s failures

A reference to just seven of their utter failures would be quite in order:

1. The Mufti-led coalition government imposed service tax on chopper service to Hindu religious places, including Shri Mata Vaishno Devi, and the BJP could do nothing.
2. It declared chanting of Vande Mataram during the Baba Budha Amarnath Yatra in Poonch district a cognizable offence and the BJP remained mum.
3. It fired two Jammu-based Hindu law officers for the reason that they successfully defended the anti-cow killing laws in the High Court and the BJP could do nothing.
4. It forced two of its cabinet ministers to resign from the cabinet to please and appease Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti. Their only sin was that they had demanded a CBI probe into the 2014 Kathua rape and murder case.
5. When Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed declared that the AIIMS, which was sanctioned for Jammu, would be established in Kashmir, the people of Jammu protested. They launched a relentless and powerful campaign against the Mufti government. Instead of making a common cause with the agitating people of Jammu, its senior most minister rubbed salt on the Jammu wounds by declaring that “no power on earth can snatch AIIMS from Kashmir.”
6. When in February 2018, Mehbooba Mufti ordered the police and revenue magistracy not to evict her co-religionists from the forest and state lands in Jammu, the BJP did nothing. In fact, two of the BJP ministers were present when Mehbooba Mufti issued the change-Jammu-demography-executive-order.
7. When one of the Congress lawmakers demanded the return of the NHPC-run and controlled power projects to the Jammu and Kashmir Government, the senior most BJP minister, instead of tearing into him, took on the Government of India. He said: “India is using our land and water.” He made this dumb-founding statement on the floor of the assembly.

But these constitute only seven of several such instances which only serve to indicate the extent to which the BJP has offended, outraged, and alienated its core constituency in Jammu province. The list is very long. No wonder then that the memories of what the BJP and its ministers did during 2015-2018 are still too fresh to be forgotten; they still linger in the people’s minds.

BJP’s poll prospects

The local BJP leadership asserts day-in and day-out that it will win 50+ seats and form government in Jammu and Kashmir on its own strength. It’s a tall claim. This is what the ground situation as it exists in Jammu province clearly suggests. However, to say all this is not to suggest that the BJP cannot turn the tables on its political foes. It can win around 30 out of 43 Assembly seats in Jammu province.

The question is: How can it put up a good show? It can perform reasonably well in Jammu by fielding new and credible faces. Even fielding new and credible faces will not be enough. It has to put attractive political wares in Jammu’s disturbed political market for sale. It has to take into consideration the poll promises made by the Kashmiri parties, including the National Conference, the People’s Democratic Party, the Congress, and the Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party. All these outfits have held out a solemn commitment that they would, if voted to power, work for the restoration of state status, Article 35A, Article 370, separate flag, separate constitution, and so on. The BJP has to make a solemn commitment that the Narendra Modi Government will treat the ignored, marginalized, and discriminated against Jammu province like the Trans-Himalayan Ladakh and grant it a political instrument that empowers it to exercise full legislative, executive, and financial powers or that grants a separate dispensation to Jammu province, if the BJP wins Jammu on October 4.

Ball in BJP’s court

To be more precise, the BJP has to come out with an election manifesto that promises full state status to Jammu province after the Assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir and that declares in unequivocal terms that the BJP will not enter into a post-poll alliance with separatist parties like the National Conference and the People’s Democratic Party. Such a solemn promise alone could help the BJP to score a splendid win. If the BJP think tanks believe that the BJP can win Jammu on the developmental plank and on the plank that it abolished Article 370 or by making Ram Madhav, an architect of the unsettling agenda of alliance in 2015, in-charge of Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections, then it can be said that it’s living in a fool’s paradise and in a world of the past. The ball is in the BJP’s court.

Concluded

Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

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