Reasserting state power in Manipur

Blunders in Manipur?

Ever since ethnic violence erupted in Manipur State on May 3, 2023, the deployment of Assam Rifles and the State police in vulnerable areas has been a bone of contention between the warring tribes of Kuki-Zo and the Meitei.

Meitei leaders and legislators have alleged that in many “sensitive areas”, Assam Rifles are not responsive and remain, mute spectators, when unarmed civilians are indiscriminately fired upon by the Kukis, who because of their involvement in drug trafficking are skilled in the use of sophisticated firearms. On January 22, 2024, 34 MLAs passed a resolution stating, “These forces and their leadership (chain of command) need to give strict instructions and be held accountable and replaced with forces that have the ability to act by returning suppressive fire when they observe that unarmed civilians are being fired upon, to enable civilians to get to cover and safety.” It is against this background that the decision to replace Assam Rifles with the CRPF has been taken. Two battalions, one posted in Churachandpur and the other in Kangpokpi districts are being replaced with CRPF. The Kuki Students’ Organisation (KSO) strongly opposes this move. But, it cannot be downplayed that the Kukis unleashed violence has killed at least 226 people, and more than 60,000 people were displaced. Despite the presence of an estimated 36,000 personnel from the Indian Army and the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), the Kuki violence continues unabated.

In September 2024, six people were killed in fresh violence in Manipur’s Jiribam district. Suspected Kuki insurgents attacked Nungchappi village in the district, about 229 km from the state capital Imphal, and even used rocket-propelled bombs. Suspected Kuki insurgents attacked villages in Imphal West district with weaponized drones – making it the first time insurgents using drones, outside of Kashmir. Protesters in the Imphal valley are blaming the state and the central government over the drone and rocket attacks, and civilians were left with no choice but to defend themselves. Students, taking a cue from the happenings in neighbouring Bangladesh took to the streets in Manipur’s Imphal protesting against the escalation of violence in the state and have demanded the removal of the DGP and the Security Advisor.

The state of Manipur never developed the infrastructure or material capacity to address existential security threats stemming from illicit narcotics traffickers. The Assam Rifles and the State Police should have been trained to track and interrupt narcotics trafficking in the region, apart from enhancing their capability to counteract transnational crime. The country’s geography, and its neighbours’ struggles with narco-terrorism, are also crucial to understanding the crisis.

Myanmar’s forcible eviction of the violent Rohingya tribe, Bangladesh’s strong addiction to the addictive drug Yaba, and the recent disclosure of a new Christian country being plotted by Western agencies should have upped the ante, for our security and intelligence agencies. While the Assam Rifles is the oldest paramilitary force in India, the CRPF is the largest paramilitary force in India. Assam Rifles has the onerous responsibility for border security, counter-insurgency, and maintaining law and order in the Northeast. Its primary duty involves guarding the Indo-Myanmar border. But it was only in 2022 that the Assam Rifles was empowered with Police powers to keep a check on the escalating drug trafficking in the North East. The Central government in 2022 conferred on the Assam Rifles powers under Section 42 of the NDPS Act that empowers the force to “search the premises, seize drugs, detain any person or arrest the person, who has committed the offence without a warrant”.

But, both the Central government and the State government did nothing to quell the rivalry between the State Police and the Assam Rifles. On many occasions, Manipur police kept registering FIRs against Assam Rifles! The police accused the central forces of helping Kuki militants to escape freely to a safe zone during combing operations. The Manipur police and the Assam Rifles on more than one occasion in the recent past have had face-offs as they tried to defend the respective geographical zones assigned to them for the maintenance of law and order. This is a highly unsatisfactory state of affairs; which the violent Kuki militants have exploited to the hilt. To worsen the complication, the CRPF is being inducted and the government is also planning to empower the CRPF by limiting the jurisdiction of the Assam Rifles! Is this the way to tackle the spectre of narco-terrorism, and the added threat of dismemberment and creation of a new country in the North-East?

The Central government and the Manipur State government have now to tackle the metastasizing criminal elements within Manipur’s society, economy, and state. This should include more than mere expressions of sympathy and solidarity. For patrolling bordering countries such as Myanmar and Bangladesh it would require mobilizing better border controls, via troops and air surveillance. A hostile Bangladesh government, though it adds to the policing woes, can be easily throttled, by conniving at the flourishing Yaba trade, which will impact that country very badly, as well as deliver a stunning blow to those meddling in trying to create a new country. Reinforcing and stepping up interdiction or maintaining discrete passivity, is a convenient lever that can be used effectively to pressurize the Bangladesh government and their recalcitrant students.

There is a clear risk that the Northeast could disintegrate into a narco-zone, which would have international implications, for India and its neighbors. Just as the reasons for the current troubles are domestic and international, so are the responsibilities and solutions. Mediation and negotiations are difficult in armed tribal conflicts, as they tend to be complex with different causes. The Centre and the Manipur government should firmly restrain the Police forces from playing FIR games, but instead focus on the borders, where alliances between state and non-state armed actors, who do not respect humanitarian values or the rules of war and who have fragmented command chains, are waiting to unleash a gory civil war.

The government needs to firmly remind all divisive forces, whether local or international, that we had successfully partnered once with the British in the Opium Wars, that devastated China. It is a tested modus operandi to compel obstinately defiant enemies into humiliating submission, as well as to compel them into acquiescing for mutually beneficial terms of peace.

Note:
1. Text in Blue points to additional data on the topic.
2. The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of PGurus.

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